Facing the Music: 2011 Philadelphia Phillies

I took the weekend off from blogging, obviously, since I didn't post.  I wanted to avoid reacting to things that occurred based on emotion rather than logic and reason.  Just because I didn't blog doesn't mean I avoided collecting--I made it to a local card show this weekend and scored some cool stuff that will be featured in posts to come.

Ok, now for some commentary on the 2011 Philadelphia Phillies.  First, congrats to the Cardinals who deserved to advance, you earned it.  It wasn't supposed to happen that way, but it did.

The operative phrase in the above sentence is wasn't supposed to happen.  Those are words I want to focus on for a second. 

How often does anything in sports that was "supposed to happen" actually happen?  Very, very rarely.  Take, for example, the following: the 2011 Cardinals weren't supposed to be in these playoffs.  The 2011 Tampa Bay Rays weren't supposed to be in these playoffs.  The 2011 Red Sox and 2011 Braves were supposed to be in these playoffs. It seemed like a lock at the beginning of September for both teams, but alas, their seasons were over after collapses. 

Another recent example: the 2010 San Francisco Giants weren't supposed to be the World Champions last year.  Expectations are very different than reality.  Ask the 2007 New England Patriots, who went 16-0 in the regular season only to lose to the New York Giants by a field goal in the Super Bowl.  The Giants were 10-6 and got into the playoffs as a #5 seed and the wildcard.  The Giants winning the Super Bowl wasn't supposed to happen.  How could it? New England was dominant during the regular season, so surely that dominance meant that they'd go all the way. 

Not so fast.

The 2011 Phillies had the best record in baseball, winning a franchise record 102 games.  That's all well and good, and a great accomplishment for the team, but once playoff time rolls around it doesn't matter if your team won 102 games or 90 games.  Your record does not matter at all.  Your record got you to the dance--it got you the opportunity to go for the prize, but it doesn't necessarily win it for you.

At the beginning of the postseason, everyone is on equal footing at 0-0.  Odds are set. Predictions are made.  Media hype and conventional wisdom lead us to believe that the teams with the best records or payroll surely will win the ultimate prize.  With this thinking, it should have been the Phillies and Yankees in the fall classic this year.  Stats tell us differently, though.  Since the modern day playoffs (1995-present) the team with the best record has only won the World Series three times out of sixteen.  That's just about 19% of the time. 

But surely the 2011 Phillies couldn't lose!  What about the pitching staff--some say the best ever? Halladay, Lee, Oswalt, Hamels, and the emergence of rookie Vance Worley? The cover of Sports Illustrated!  The Hunter Pence pick-up is what they needed to solidify a ring!  The veteran, playoff tested, proven players who would carry the young guys. Oh, and Cliff Lee cannot lose in the playoffs!   The 200+ sellouts in a row at Citizens Bank Park provide an extra spark and extra dollars for big name players.  And we have Ryan Howard, and Chase Utley, and CHOOCH! and----

Hold up.

Step back, and get back to basics.  Baseball is a kid's game at its core.  It's simple, really.  Pitch, hit, field, run the bases, strategize, and do those things better than the team you are playing against.  It doesn't matter who the players are, what matters is the way they play.  What matters is hustle, heart, and motivation.  The St. Louis Cardinals did more things right more often that the Phillies did in this particular five game series, and they won, plain and simple.  The same can be said for the Tigers over the Yankees, and the Rangers over the Rays.  Play these series again next week and the opposite could happen just as easily.  It's just how the game goes.

I'll be the first to admit that I expected this team to make it to the World Series, and even win.  I expected that last year, too. Disappointment abounds, and losing hurts--for fans and players alike, partly due to these expectations.  Around the sixth inning during the game Friday night I started to really feel like this team might not make it, but I still had hope.  Then around the eighth inning hope turned to acceptance.  Sadness over the "lost" season turned to thoughts of reason instead.  You cannot win if you don't hit and score.  You can have the best pitching in the world, but in the postseason if you aren't clicking on all cylinders, you're vulnerable, no matter what your payroll or win loss record might be.

If there's one thing that's been most clear this season it's that nothing is a given in baseball.  A team full of Cy Young winners and contenders won't be successful unless the offense catches up to the defense.  A team full of big name hitters won't be successful if the pitching lacks.  Money doesn't matter.  Talent matters.  And I think it's clear that talent level doesn't always warrant the big paychecks.

I'm throwing any speculation as to who is going to win out of these last four teams out the window. It's best to leave it up to the baseball gods.